Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS64 KSHV 191105
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
605 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

 - The remnants of a tropical wave will move out of the region
   today, but rain chances will remain for a large portion of the
   Four State Region. Localized flooding can not be ruled out.

 - Dry weather, along with hot and humid conditions, will return
   Sunday and for most of the upcoming work week. Additional Heat
   Advisories will be possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The previously mentioned tropical/easterly wave in the northern
Gulf that moved inland, brought widespread rainfall across a large
portion of the Four State Region yesterday, with some areas
receiving 2" to 4". The current surface analysis has the remnants
of the wave across portions of SW Arkansas, but it is expected to
move out of the region overnight. Until then, can`t rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm across the region, but confidence
is very low. Decided to keep slight chance POPs in the forecast
overnight just to be safe. Another minor concern is the
possibility of patchy fog. With light winds and wet soils, can`t
rule out some fog development overnight across locations that
received rainfall. That fog should diminish by early to mid
morning. Despite the wave moving out of the region, 2" PWATs
combined with afternoon heating will yield some additional
afternoon convection over the area. At this time, the best chance
for rain will be across locations south of Interstate 30 corridor.
Although another hot and humid day will be on tap, models are
keeping heat indices below 105 degrees for most of the area, so
no Heat Advisories will be issued today.

Upper ridging will build back over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday and through most of next week. This
will result in mostly dry weather, with hot and humid conditions.
Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around 100
degrees. More Heat Advisories will be likely, as heat indices are
expected to climb above 105 degrees over the most of the area.
However, long-term progs continue to suggest that the ridge could
erode enough on the southern fringes by late next week to allow
some afternoon seabreeze convection to move into our southern and
eastern zones, bringing some relief to the heat. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions currently prevailing across all terminal locations
but there are pockets of MVFR and IFR ceilings around the vicinity
of the MLU and ELD terminals. Can`t rule out brief ceilings of
these categories across these locations but otherwise, current
ceilings ranging from near 4kft to near 10kft should scatter out
as we await daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered
convection, mainly near and southeast of a line from near Lufkin
and Shreveport to near El Dorado. Across our southeast airspace is
where the best available moisture resides and thus, its these
areas that should see the best storm coverage today. Any diurnally
driven storms should weaken and begin dissipating after 02z or so
this evening.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  78  97  77 /  30  20   0   0
MLU  92  75  97  76 /  40  20  10   0
DEQ  94  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  96  77  98  77 /  20  20   0   0
ELD  92  75  96  75 /  40  20   0   0
TYR  93  76  96  75 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  93  76  96  75 /  20  20   0   0
LFK  94  75  96  73 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13