Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS64 KSHV 060742
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
242 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Short range guidance has remained somewhat uncertain regarding the
exact timing of our early morning complex of storms. Consensus
pushes an MCS out of south central Oklahoma around or soon after
daybreak, bringing impacts towards the I-30 corridor into the late
morning. The complex is expected to weaken as it tracks south and
east, but the possibility of further outflow-driven convection may
linger into the early afternoon between the I-20 and I-30 corridors.
A Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather exists with this
system, particularly the earlier and further north the impacts
commence, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard, but
large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Showers and storms look to dissipate by midafternoon, with quiet
conditions persisting for the majority of the region. However, while
pseudo zonal to northwest flow continues, our northernmost zones
will retain the possibility of being clipped by showers and storms
overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. Early in the day
tomorrow, a shortwave trough will propagate out of Oklahoma and
through the Ozarks, and looks to kick up the next round of storms,
beginning tomorrow morning and afternoon for our northern and
eastern zones.

Temperatures will continue to reach above average values as
afternoon highs climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s today and
tomorrow, with warm, muggy lows in the 70s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

By tomorrow evening, a more organized trough will push south and
east out of Oklahoma over the Ouachitas, and with this forcing
mechanism the next organized round of storms will sweep into the
ArkLaTex from the north Saturday evening, pushing south overnight.
The impacts of this system are accounted for by a Slight Risk (Level
2 of 5) for areas along and north of I-20. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are the primary expected hazards, with a possible tornado
or two. The primary threat of storms looks to track south and east
out of the region Sunday morning, with lingering slight chances for
storms in their wake, reinforced by expanded convection into the
afternoon and evening. Sunday will see another day of Slight Risk,
this time for the northwestern two-thirds of the Four State
Region.

The northwest flow regime will continue into early next week, with a
large ridge over the Rockies and a deepening low over the Great
Lakes. A small shortwave trough will be riding the flow late Sunday
overnight into Monday, heralded by returning showers and storms for
our northeast Texas zones, spreading areawide into Monday morning.
These rainfall chances will see little interruption through the
first half of the week, as a series of weak disturbances propagating
down the northwest flow. By mid to late week, the ridge looks to
lift to the north. However, this will not spell any sort of end to
our unsettled pattern, as a closed low takes shape over Texas,
opening up into an eastward tracking trough, and accompanying
showers and storms on a near daily basis through to the end of this
extended forecast period.

low to mid 90s will continue through the weekend, followed by a
slight cooling trend in the form of areawide 80s through next week`s
rainier pattern. Lows in the 60s and 70s will continue throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the 06/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail for the moment
with just cirrus blowoff from upstream convection. However, low
stratus cigs are expected to make a return closer to daybreak at
our East TX terminals as S/SE flow maintains a steady moisture
transport. Farther north and east across our AR and LA terminals,
stratus is not expected to be as concentrated so although cigs
aren`t currently advertised, some 1Kft-2.5Kft SCT decks will be
possible through late morning before lifting into an afternoon cu
field. Any convection that does manage to advance southward into
our airspace should be confined to the KTXK terminal so have VCTS
by 06/17Z to account for this possibility. Otherwise, remaining
terminals should stay convection-free with light S/SE winds this
morning trending more SW between 6-12 kts on Friday afternoon.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  96  77 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  94  77  96  76 /  10   0  10  30
DEQ  89  71  90  68 /  50  10  30  50
TXK  93  76  94  73 /  40   0  10  50
ELD  93  73  94  70 /  10  10  10  50
TYR  92  76  93  76 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  93  75  93  75 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  94  75  95  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19